Outlook-at-Risk [USA]

Downside risks to real GDP growth remain at historically normal levels, with the estimated conditional distribution of average growth over the next four quarters close to the unconditional distribution

Outlook-at-Risk provides a unified approach to measuring downside risk to real GDP growth, upside risk to the unemployment rate, and two-sided risks to CPI inflation

Current and Unconditional Distribution: Unemployment Rate

Officials raised their end of 2024 median forecast for the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4%, a slight decline from the current rate of 4.2%

Predictive Distribution over Time: CPI Inflation

These projections reflect the Committee's belief that the risks to inflation have become broadly balanced while risks to the unemployment rate are now weighed to the upside.